Sunday, November 20, 2016

What if electoral votes were proportional to state population?

One of the oddities of the electoral college system in electing the U.S. president is that some voters' ballots count for more than others. This is because electoral votes are not proportional to the states' populations.

Yes, big states do get more electoral votes, but not as many as they would if the votes were allocated proportionally. For instance, California gets 55 electoral votes, while Wyoming, the smallest state, gets 3. This mean California gets 18 times more electoral votes than Wyoming. But California actually has 67 times the population of Wyoming.

Under the electoral college, voters in small states get disproportionate sway. A vote cast in a small state can count for more than three times as much as one cast in large state.

What would happen if electoral votes were allocated proportional to state population? I took Census population numbers for all the states, created a "proportional" electoral vote division and applied them to the results for the 2016 election.

All the small states in this experiment got 1 vote. California, the largest state, got the most, 67. Some other states got more, others fewer. (You can see the breakdown below.) Because of the way this calculation was done, I ended up with a total of 548 electoral votes, slightly more than the real 538.

The results? Well ... not much difference. Under my scenario, Donald Trump would have received 292 votes to Hillary Clinton's 239, with Michigan still undecided as I write this.  The actual result was 290 for Trump versus 232 for Clinton (again, not counting Michigan).

Yes, I'm surprised this didn't change things much. Still, in a different election, proportional electoral vote allocation could change the result, especially if one candidate gets most large states while another get mostly small ones.

State Actual electoral votes Proportional votes Winner
Alabama 9 8 Trump
Alaska 3 1 Trump
Arizona 11 12 Trump
Arkansas 6 5 Trump
California 55 67 Clinton
Colorado 9 9 Clinton
Connecticut 7 6 Clinton
Delaware 3 2 Clinton
District of Columbia 3 1 Clinton
Florida 29 35 Trump
Georgia 16 17 Trump
Hawaii 4 2 Clinton
Idaho 4 3 Trump
Illinois 20 22 Clinton
Indiana 11 11 Trump
Iowa 6 5 Trump
Kansas 6 5 Trump
Kentucky 8 8 Trump
Louisiana 8 8 Trump
Maine 4 2 Clinton
Maryland 10 10 Clinton
Massachusetts 11 12 Clinton
Michigan 16 17
Minnesota 10 9 Clinton
Mississippi 6 5 Trump
Missouri 10 10 Trump
Montana 3 2 Trump
Nebraska 5 3 Trump
Nevada 6 5 Clinton
New Hampshire 4 2 Clinton
New Jersey 14 15 Clinton
New Mexico 5 4 Clinton
New York 29 34 Clinton
North Carolina 15 17 Trump
North Dakota 3 1 Trump
Ohio 18 20 Trump
Oklahoma 7 7 Trump
Oregon 7 7 Clinton
Pennsylvania 20 22 Trump
Rhode Island 4 2 Clinton
South Carolina 9 8 Trump
South Dakota 3 1 Trump
Tennessee 11 11 Trump
Texas 38 47 Trump
Utah 6 5 Trump
Vermont 3 1 Clinton
Virginia 13 14 Clinton
Washington 12 12 Clinton
West Virginia 5 3 Trump
Wisconsin 10 10 Trump
Wyoming 3 1 Trump

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