Tuesday, June 21, 2022

Book review: "The Hunt for History" by Nathan Raab

Perhaps the highest compliment one can pay to a book is to regret that it had to end.

This was the case with "The Hunt for History," by Nathan Raab, a 2020 book filled with fascinating historical stories and an inside look at the world of rare document collectors. When I turned the last page and realized there were no more stories, I was bummed. 

"The Hunt for History" isn't a perfect book, but it's very readable. Raab, a collector and reseller of historical documents and objects, illuminates lesser-known moments involving such figures as George Washington, Theodore Roosevelt, Albert Einstein and Martin Luther King Jr.. Each story is tied to a document or item that Raab is considering acquiring. First he must answer some basic questions: Is this item genuine? And if it is, what is it worth?

It's a bit like "Antiques Roadshow," but this book goes deeper.

I liked Raab's description, early in "The Hunt for History," of learning the rare document business at the feet of his father. His father impressed on Raab the importance of examining the details of a document  "Don't just assume, look closer." For example, the elder Raab spotted the significance of an obscure William McKinley document listed among many items for sale at an auction. They bought if for $20,000 and resold it for $60,000. 

"This is the process by which my dad had built his business in the early years: he'd looked at page after page and found something hidden in plain sight," Nathan Raab writes. 

A key takeaway: The most valuable documents connect the authors to their historical significance. His father, for instance, instantly saw the value in a letter by Orville Wright where he describes "Learning the secret of flight from a bird." If the letter had been about a more mundane topic, it would be far less valuable. 

Eventually, Nathan Raab took over the family business, with help from his father. 

In one chapter, Raab describes acquiring a letter signed by Thomas Jefferson that was largely a list of books the third president was ordering. It didn't seem that significant at first, especially when he realized the bulk of the handwriting in the letter was not Jefferson's.  

"Damn," said his father.

But research changed things. First, they discovered it had been written by Meriwether Lewis, who was Jefferson's secretary before leading the Lewis and Clark Expedition. They then learned that this book order was actually the first major acquisition of the Library of Congress. So in one document, they connected two major historical figures and a major American institution.  They eventually sold the letter to the Library of Congress (Raab hints that the price was "in the six figures").

There are more stories relating to Napoleon, Winston Churchill, Thomas Edison, Ronald Reagan, and other notables. Many of the stories involve fortuitous discoveries of valuable items in someone's closet or attic. Too often, Raab says, important historical items have been forgotten and ignored, and come close to being tossed in the trash (of course, some probably are). 

It takes time and experience to recognize the value of a piece, Raab says  even auction houses like Christie's and Sotheby's often miss or underplay the historical significance of items they're selling, 

I liked Raab's description of how they work to authenticate documents and spot fakes. They look for clues in the handwriting, the type of paper, the "bleeding" of  the ink, watermarks, creases, and any known history of the item (the "provenance"). Even the size of the paper itself can be a clue.

Raab is a good writer, but there some small lapses.

First, he is inconsistent in providing the prices of items. Part of the fun of these stories is knowing what things are worth. In some chapters, he is clear about prices, but at other times is oddly vague.

In one chapter about selling two long-lost audiotapes from the Air Force One flight that carried John F. Kennedy's body after his assassination, Raab at first describes how he and his father agonized over what price to ask. They eventually settled on $500,000. But when he was forced to give one of the tapes to the National Archives, he was able to sell only one. So what did it sell for? He never says.

In one case, he seems to hint that a batch of documents he was reviewing had been acquired earlier by theft, saying "it was pretty clear what happened." Don't be coy! Say what you mean.

Last, I wish Raab would admit to at least one mistaken purchase. Surely, there's been a time where he inadvertently bought a fake or at least paid too much for something. But none of that is in the book.  A little less-than-perfect moment would help make him more human.

Still, these are minor complaints. It is a quite enjoyable book. Raab seems a young man, so I hope he will return someday with more great stories.


Monday, June 13, 2022

Movie review: "Margin Call"

The 2011 movie "Margin Call" attempts to capture the start of the 2008 financial collapse by looking at the inside workings of a single financial company. If you're thinking this sounds like Lehman Brothers, the company whose failure triggered the meltdown of banks and brokerages, you've got the right idea.

There was a lot of real-life drama at the time of the collapse and you could imagine it making a good movie. But "Margin Call" is not it. Despite an all-star cast — Kevin Spacey, Demi Moore, Jeremy Irons, Stanley Tucci  the movie is undermined by a subpar script.

The entire story takes place in less than 24 hours, beginning with mass layoffs at the company. This is perhaps the best part of the movie, as it captures the heartlessness of the layoff process. Tucci's character. Eric Dale, is one of those to get the ax, but before he is escorted from the building, he asks former underling Peter Sullivan (Zachary Quinto) to take a look at some research he has been working on.

Zachary Quinto in "Margin Call"

Sullivan looks at the data, crunches some numbers and goes  "Whoa!"  He shows others the numbers, and they all go "Uh oh," "Oh shit," and similar things. We never get to see what they're looking at and there is barely any effort to explain it, but the upshot is that they've realized their financial house of cards is about to fall.

There's a ton of angst, hand-wringing, and finger-pointing as a tight group of financial wizards and executives stay up all night.  But the movie's unwillingness or inability to explain the actual problem is terribly frustrating for the viewer. We don't understand why the company is in trouble, why it's melting down at this particular moment nor whether it has any real options.

It's as if the scriptwriters said "Financial stuff is too hard to explain, so we're not even going to try." That's weak. Smart movies figure out ways to explain complicated topics to the masses. 

By midway through the movie it's clear that the financial disaster is coming when the markets open in the morning. There's zero suspense, just more hand-wringing. It's a slow, melancholy slide to the inevitable.

It's somewhat disconcerting that while the angst continues into the wee hours of the night and even into the early morning, all the characters remain primly dressed with not a hair out of place, nor even a yawn.

One of the movie's biggest weaknesses is that it's just plain hard to feel any sympathy for characters that  as the movie clearly states  are making ungodly gobs of money. You know that even if they lose this job, they will find another similar lucrative one soon after. (You do feel a little sorry for Kevin Spacey's character after his dog dies, but that's a small moment.) 

A smart movie would have found a way to show how the actions of wealthy Wall Street fat cats affect everyday people. 

Saturday, June 11, 2022

Where are you most likely to die in a public mass shooting?

 Since Jan. 1, 1992, there have been 134 shootings in a public space in the United States where at least four people have died. That's according to the Mass Shooter Database created and maintained by The Violence Project.  In all, 801 people have died in the incidents. 

These shootings have not been uniformly distributed around the country. In fact, 14 states have had zero of these events in this 30-year period. By comparison, Texas has had eight fatal mass shootings; California seven.

So where are you most likely to die in a public mass shooting? The numbers say: Nevada.

By dividing the number of people who have died in these shootings by the state's population, we get a rate. And Nevada's rate  19.7 deaths per million people  is the highest among all the states, 

Nevada's rate is due almost entirely to the 2017 murder of 58 people at the Route 91 Harvest musical festival in Las Vegas. There was only one other fatal public mass shooting in Nevada since 1991  the murder of four people in Carson City in 2011. 

Nevada is followed on this list by the District of Columbia, Connecticut, Colorado and Virginia.  Full list is at the bottom. 

That's the top of the rankings, but in many ways I'm more interested in the bottom.  I feel like some lessons could be learned by looking at the 14 states that had zeros deaths: North Carolina, Alaska, Delaware, Iowa, Maine, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

What are those states doing right? I don't know, but we should try to find out.

It is too simplistic to dismiss the zero-death toll in these states as being due to the fact that most of them are small. 

While it's true that some of the least-populated states, such as Wyoming, Vermont and Alaska, are in this zero-death group, so is North Carolina, which is the ninth-most populated state. While it has no deaths in this category over the last 30 years, Connecticut, with one-third as many people, has had 39.

Another way to put it would be to note that Colorado has about the same population as Iowa, Maine and Montana combined, but the former has had 39 deaths in public mass shootings since 1991 while the latter three have had zero.  Again, why? 

It should be noted that public fatal mass shooting are relatively rate. A total of 801 deaths over 30 years is 26.7 deaths per year. While each of those deaths is a tragedy, it is important to remember that 11,000 people in the U.S. are murdered by gun every year. Most of these happen in everyday places like in the home and at work. If you're going to be shot to death, it's far more likely that the killer will be someone you know rather than a random stranger. 

State/DistrictTotal deathsPopulation (2021)
Deaths per million people
1.Nevada623,143,99119.72
2.District of Columbia12670,05017.91
3.Connecticut393,605,59710.82
4.Colorado395,812,0696.71
5.Virginia448,642,2745.09
6.Mississippi152,949,9655.08
7.Hawaii71,441,5534.86
8.Nebraska81,963,6924.07
9.Texas11429,527,9413.86
10.Florida8121,781,1283.72
11.Oregon134,246,1553.06
12.Wisconsin175,895,9082.88
13.New Hampshire41,388,9922.88
14.Minnesota155,707,3902.63
15.South Carolina135,190,7052.50
16.Georgia2410,799,5662.22
17.Idaho41,900,9232.10
18.Louisiana94,624,0471.95
19.Washington157,738,6921.94
20.New York3819,835,9131.92
21.Indiana126,805,9851.76
22.Kansas52,934,5821.70
23.Ohio2011,780,0171.70
24.California6539,237,8361.66
25.Arkansas53,025,8911.65
26.Missouri106,168,1871.62
27.Pennsylvania2012,964,0561.54
28.Utah53,337,9751.50
29.Arizona107,276,3161.37
30.Tennessee96,975,2181.29
31.Illinois1512,671,4691.18
32.Kentucky54,509,3941.11
33.Massachusetts76,984,7231.00
34.Michigan1010,050,8110.99
35.Maryland56,165,1290.81
36.Alabama45,039,8770.79
37.New Jersey49,267,1300.43
38Alaska0732,6730.00
39.Delaware01,003,3840.00
40.Iowa03,193,0790.00
41.Maine01,372,2470.00
42.Montana01,104,2710.00
43.New Mexico02,115,8770.00
44.North Carolina010,551,1620.00
45.North Dakota0774,9480.00
46.Oklahoma03,986,6390.00
47.Rhode Island01,095,6100.00
48.South Dakota0895,3760.00
49.Vermont0645,5700.00
50.West Virginia01,782,9590.00
51.Wyoming0578,8030.00